{"F": {"ts_code": "920690.BJ", "name": "捷众科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20240105", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.32, "pe_ttm": 19.0504, "pb": 2.3365, "dv_ttm": 2.3567, "total_mv": 140662.08, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.2, 36.0, 36.6, 36.4, 38.4, 35.8], "rev_series": [1.5, 1.7, 2.0, 2.3, 2.9, 3.9], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.7], "roe_series": [11.3, 9.6, 10.8, 9.2, 11.9, 12.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.2, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 36.4, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 18.5, "roe_median": 10.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.3, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.34, "capex_dep": 1.33, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 15.4, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 42.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 26.0, "np_cagr3": 24.3, "rev_yoy": 19.3, "np_yoy": 5.7, "np_vol": 21.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["汽车门窗系统零部件", 15.0], ["汽车门窗系统", 15.0], ["精密传动系统", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 89.1, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -35.1, "ret_pivot": 106.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 58, "hard": 61, "bondness": 29}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 3 亿,占总资产 38%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 36.4%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.9%,股息率 2.4%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 74%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 38%)和定价权(毛利率 36.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.4%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.33 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.1 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "捷众科技:PE 比行业中位低 11.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.8个百分点。"]}}