{"F": {"ts_code": "920682.BJ", "name": "球冠电缆", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20200727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.05, "pe_ttm": 30.872, "pb": 2.0923, "dv_ttm": 2.7548, "total_mv": 235572.48, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.7, 11.1, 12.6, 12.8, 10.9, 10.3], "rev_series": [20.8, 26.9, 26.6, 29.8, 35.8, 38.1], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.0], "roe_series": [11.1, 8.7, 11.0, 11.8, 12.2, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.3, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 11.1, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.4, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.09, "capex_dep": 1.59, "interest_debt": 15.0, "debt_ebitda": 9.5, "debt_ratio": 64.6, "debt_mv": 63.8, "payout": 66.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.8, "np_cagr3": -3.7, "rev_yoy": 37.0, "np_yoy": -38.5, "np_vol": 19.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 23.0, "fwd_pe2": 19.7, "fwd_g1": 34.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力电缆", 93.0], ["电气装备用电线电缆", 6.0], ["裸电线", 0.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.5, "ret_prev2_year": 20.3, "ret_ytd": -19.1, "ret_pivot": 98.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 45, "hard": 18, "bondness": 62}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 30.9 倍、股息率 2.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%、固定资产占比 11%、有息负债/EBITDA 9.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.59 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.9 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "球冠电缆:PE 比行业中位低 12.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点。"]}}