{"F": {"ts_code": "920679.BJ", "name": "前进科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20231110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.35, "pe_ttm": 45.7481, "pb": 1.8444, "dv_ttm": 1.7125, "total_mv": 91314.75, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.5, 38.8, 37.8, 42.8, 34.6, 31.0], "rev_series": [1.8, 1.9, 2.2, 1.7, 1.4, 1.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [24.5, 16.2, 17.0, 9.7, 4.4, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.4, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 37.8, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -9.8, "npm_median": 23.7, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.7, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.84, "capex_dep": 4.5, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 6.7, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 100.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -20.0, "np_cagr3": -28.0, "rev_yoy": 62.5, "np_yoy": 7.5, "np_vol": 18.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["热交换器", 25.0], ["家用热交换器", 25.0], ["商用热交换器", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.9, "ret_prev2_year": -22.7, "ret_ytd": -16.7, "ret_pivot": 68.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 54, "hard": 51, "bondness": 65}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 2 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 37.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -4.2%,股息率 1.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 89%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 37.8% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 4.50 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.7 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "前进科技:PE 比行业中位低 4.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.9个百分点。"]}}