{"F": {"ts_code": "920665.BJ", "name": "科强股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "其他橡胶制品", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.05, "pe_ttm": 48.1249, "pb": 1.6261, "dv_ttm": 1.105, "total_mv": 117640.95, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.3, 34.8, 37.3, 41.8, 38.2, 32.2], "rev_series": [2.4, 2.8, 2.8, 3.5, 3.4, 3.2], "np_series": [0.5, 0.4, 0.5, 0.8, 0.6, 0.3], "roe_series": [17.8, 11.2, 12.2, 13.4, 8.9, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.2, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 3.3, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 37.3, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 17.7, "roe_median": 11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.2, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.63, "capex_dep": 1.02, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 11.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": -14.8, "rev_yoy": 0.0, "np_yoy": -36.2, "np_vol": 32.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["车辆风挡折棚棚布", 19.0], ["棚布", 19.0], ["胶带胶布", 14.0], ["胶带", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 38.1, "ret_prev2_year": -12.7, "ret_ytd": -35.2, "ret_pivot": 32.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 55, "hard": 23, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 48.1 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.3%、固定资产占比 14%、资产负债率 12%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.3%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.1 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "科强股份:PE 比行业中位高 18.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.8个百分点。"]}}