{"F": {"ts_code": "920663.BJ", "name": "明阳科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230315", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.57, "pe_ttm": 18.8882, "pb": 4.473, "dv_ttm": 4.4143, "total_mv": 181230.7561, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.7, 43.9, 45.1, 46.2, 43.0, 40.8], "rev_series": [1.3, 1.6, 2.1, 2.6, 3.0, 3.9], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9], "roe_series": [24.3, 24.6, 28.9, 24.4, 21.7, 21.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.1, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 43.9, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 24.6, "roe_median": 24.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.8, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.47, "capex_dep": 1.57, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 21.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 52.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 23.3, "np_cagr3": 18.8, "rev_yoy": 10.1, "np_yoy": 33.2, "np_vol": 11.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 18.5, "fwd_pe2": 15.5, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.93, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["金属粉末冶金零件", 20.0], ["粉末冶金零件(PM)", 20.0], ["自润滑轴承(DU)", 12.0], ["自润滑轴承", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 67.8, "ret_prev2_year": 5.1, "ret_ytd": -23.6, "ret_pivot": 87.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 62, "hard": 43, "bondness": 48}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 33%,PE TTM 18.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 18.5 倍,PEG 0.93。", "自由现金流 0.8 亿(正),次年预期增速 20%(4 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.9%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.9%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 1.57 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.9 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "明阳科技:PE 比行业中位低 11.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点。"]}}