{"F": {"ts_code": "920662.BJ", "name": "方盛股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.46, "pe_ttm": 220.4351, "pb": 4.1645, "dv_ttm": 0.5592, "total_mv": 187882.3043, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.9, 25.2, 28.8, 31.0, 22.5, 19.6], "rev_series": [2.1, 3.0, 3.5, 3.4, 3.5, 3.9], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [28.5, 21.2, 17.3, 14.8, 6.6, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.0, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 25.2, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 12.3, "roe_median": 14.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.0, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 4.16, "capex_dep": 2.04, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 25.3, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": 50.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": -28.4, "rev_yoy": 7.9, "np_yoy": -78.1, "np_vol": 36.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 59.6, "fwd_pe2": 47.0, "fwd_g1": 270.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 2.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["板翅式换热器", 20.0], ["换热器", 20.0], ["换热设备", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.1, "ret_prev2_year": 13.0, "ret_ytd": -25.6, "ret_pivot": 160.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 43, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 220.4 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.2%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.2%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 2.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 220.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "方盛股份:PE 比行业中位高 169.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点。"]}}