{"F": {"ts_code": "920651.BJ", "name": "天罡股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230627", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.62, "pe_ttm": 22.7863, "pb": 2.9977, "dv_ttm": 2.7322, "total_mv": 156282.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.6, 50.9, 51.0, 53.5, 50.0, 45.5], "rev_series": [2.3, 2.4, 2.4, 2.7, 3.0, 3.5], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8], "roe_series": [20.2, 20.9, 18.5, 15.8, 15.4, 14.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.4, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 50.9, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 2.4, "npm_median": 23.9, "roe_median": 15.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.9, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.0, "capex_dep": 2.04, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 25.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 57.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 13.8, "np_cagr3": 10.4, "rev_yoy": -5.8, "np_yoy": -26.9, "np_vol": 8.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["超声波水表及流量计", 14.0], ["超声波水表", 14.0], ["超声波热量表及系统", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 79.0, "ret_prev2_year": 27.6, "ret_ytd": -39.0, "ret_pivot": 141.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 68, "hard": 32, "bondness": 46}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 20%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 50.9%,稳定度 95%、ROE 近 5 年中位 15.8%。", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%,分红率 57%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 50.9%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 2.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.8 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "天罡股份:PE 比行业中位低 27.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}