{"F": {"ts_code": "920642.BJ", "name": "通易航天", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20210816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.59, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.9404, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 109786.8244, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [77.9, 53.6, 34.0, 31.2, 20.6, 22.7], "rev_series": [0.9, 1.0, 1.9, 1.9, 1.7, 0.9], "np_series": [0.4, 0.2, 0.3, 0.2, -0.0, -0.3], "roe_series": [28.3, 10.9, 11.4, 6.4, -0.6, -14.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 0.7, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 31.2, "gm_std": 11.7, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": -43.9, "npm_median": 8.1, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.7, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.94, "capex_dep": 0.24, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 41.3, "debt_mv": 11.9, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -21.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -27.1, "np_yoy": 93.9, "np_vol": 821.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["功能性膜产品", 21.0], ["胶制品", 19.0], ["橡胶制品及配套设备", 19.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.0, "ret_prev2_year": -17.0, "ret_ytd": -37.2, "ret_pivot": 72.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 60, "bondness": 36}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 41%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 62%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -43.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "通易航天:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.1个百分点。"]}}