{"F": {"ts_code": "920641.BJ", "name": "格利尔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "照明设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "照明设备Ⅲ", "ind": "照明设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221202", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.15, "pe_ttm": 62.6073, "pb": 3.0236, "dv_ttm": 0.7067, "total_mv": 106231.125, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.6, 23.2, 25.6, 22.1, 18.4, 19.8], "rev_series": [3.7, 5.0, 7.2, 5.5, 5.4, 5.2], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.6, 0.2, -0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [17.2, 17.9, 21.5, 5.9, -2.2, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 22.1, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.8, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.02, "capex_dep": 2.36, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 48.8, "debt_mv": 8.8, "payout": 76.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -10.5, "np_cagr3": -48.3, "rev_yoy": 26.1, "np_yoy": 261.3, "np_vol": 118.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["磁性器件业务", 24.0], ["磁性元器件", 24.0], ["照明业务", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": -6.1, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": 124.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 49, "hard": 32, "bondness": 57}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 62.6 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 2.36 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 62.6 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「照明设备Ⅱ」14 家中位:PE 61.2 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 25.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 71%。", "格利尔:PE 比行业中位高 1.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点。"]}}