{"F": {"ts_code": "920634.BJ", "name": "新威凌", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铅锌", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221124", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.54, "pe_ttm": 66.1192, "pb": 3.8324, "dv_ttm": 0.5702, "total_mv": 112078.4356, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.8, 10.5, 8.7, 9.7, 8.3, 7.9], "rev_series": [3.9, 6.0, 5.9, 5.5, 9.5, 8.2], "np_series": [0.2, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [26.5, 32.2, 11.5, 9.0, 10.9, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 8.7, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 10.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 20.4, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.83, "capex_dep": 2.02, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 25.9, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.0, "np_cagr3": -4.0, "rev_yoy": 9.0, "np_yoy": -8.8, "np_vol": 36.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["锌粉", 33.0], ["球状锌粉", 33.0], ["片状锌粉", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 61.1, "ret_prev2_year": 15.5, "ret_ytd": -27.2, "ret_pivot": 87.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 70, "hard": 33, "bondness": 22}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 66.1 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 8.7%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 8.7%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.7%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 2.02 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 66.1 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "新威凌:PE 比行业中位高 45.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.1个百分点。"]}}