{"F": {"ts_code": "920580.BJ", "name": "科创新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "耐火材料", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220513", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.49, "pe_ttm": 38.2605, "pb": 2.816, "dv_ttm": 0.6092, "total_mv": 98814.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.5, 43.2, 36.1, 37.2, 30.8, 34.0], "rev_series": [1.2, 1.2, 1.1, 1.1, 1.2, 1.4], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.1, 0.2, 0.1, 0.2], "roe_series": [16.2, 13.2, 5.2, 4.7, 2.9, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.6, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 36.1, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 12.9, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.4, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.82, "capex_dep": 1.7, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 9.4, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 63.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.8, "np_cagr3": 8.3, "rev_yoy": 42.4, "np_yoy": 115.7, "np_vol": 47.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 32.8, "fwd_pe2": 30.2, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 3.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["定型耐火制品", 37.0], ["功能耐火材料", 37.0], ["碳化硅复合材料", 22.0], ["不定形耐火材料", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.5, "ret_prev2_year": 18.9, "ret_ytd": -22.2, "ret_pivot": 119.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 53, "hard": 52, "bondness": 38}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 1 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 36.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -2.1%,股息率 0.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 87%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 36.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.70 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.3 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "科创新材:PE 比行业中位高 2.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.6个百分点。"]}}