{"F": {"ts_code": "920576.BJ", "name": "天力复合", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "金属新材料", "sw3": "其他金属新材料", "ind": "金属新材料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.42, "pe_ttm": 523.912, "pb": 10.046, "dv_ttm": 0.2474, "total_mv": 440375.9, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.7, 21.5, 22.3, 22.2, 23.9, 15.9], "rev_series": [3.7, 5.0, 6.4, 7.4, 5.2, 5.2], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.7, 0.9, 0.6, 0.2], "roe_series": [16.5, 17.0, 24.0, 22.4, 13.2, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.5, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 22.2, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 11.5, "roe_median": 17.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.4, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.05, "capex_dep": 0.17, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 35.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 53.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -6.4, "np_cagr3": -34.8, "rev_yoy": -27.7, "np_yoy": -79.0, "np_vol": 48.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 577.4, "fwd_pe2": 336.8, "fwd_g1": -9.0, "fwd_g2": 71.0, "peg": 8.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钛金属复合材料", 40.0], ["钛/钢", 40.0], ["其他金属复合材料", 18.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 242.1, "ret_prev2_year": -18.0, "ret_ytd": -42.7, "ret_pivot": 182.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 31, "bondness": 41}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 523.9 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 577.4 倍,次年 336.8 倍,PEG 8.13。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.17 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 523.9 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「金属新材料」35 家中位:PE 58.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 35%。", "天力复合:PE 比行业中位高 465.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点。"]}}