{"F": {"ts_code": "920571.BJ", "name": "国航远洋", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.93, "pe_ttm": 31.2846, "pb": 4.0534, "dv_ttm": 1.007, "total_mv": 551519.6008, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.8, 30.5, 24.2, 11.4, 20.3, 23.2], "rev_series": [7.0, 14.4, 11.6, 8.9, 9.4, 10.0], "np_series": [-0.7, 3.7, 1.9, 0.0, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [-20.0, 71.3, 17.7, 0.2, 1.7, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.0, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 7.9, "gm_median": 23.2, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": 16.4, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 77.6, "fix_assets": 37.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.05, "capex_dep": 1.62, "interest_debt": 16.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 72.1, "debt_mv": 29.4, "payout": 200.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -4.9, "np_cagr3": -47.2, "rev_yoy": 47.2, "np_yoy": 603.8, "np_vol": 373.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 31.2, "fwd_pe2": 26.3, "fwd_g1": 0.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 1.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["运输劳务", 49.0], ["航运业务", 49.0], ["船舶配件物料贸易", 1.0], ["船用配件物料燃料油贸易", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 64.3, "ret_prev2_year": 9.8, "ret_ytd": 0.9, "ret_pivot": 189.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 48, "hard": 100, "bondness": 72}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.3 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%、固定资产占比 78%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 78%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 7.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 16.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 78%,资本开支/折旧 1.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.3 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "国航远洋:PE 比行业中位高 14.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 30.5个百分点。"]}}