{"F": {"ts_code": "920570.BJ", "name": "坤博精工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20231123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.7, "pe_ttm": 71.1223, "pb": 3.6233, "dv_ttm": 0.3891, "total_mv": 128936.44, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 28.4, 27.6, 29.8, 21.4, 24.0], "rev_series": [0.9, 1.5, 2.1, 3.0, 1.3, 1.2], "np_series": [0.2, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [24.4, 14.7, 26.3, 21.4, 3.0, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.3, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 27.6, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -10.0, "npm_median": 10.1, "roe_median": 14.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.7, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.62, "capex_dep": 2.43, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 12.3, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 43.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -17.2, "np_cagr3": -30.6, "rev_yoy": 19.3, "np_yoy": 239.2, "np_vol": 73.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["工业自动化装备零部件", 31.0], ["新能源装备零部件", 10.0], ["半导体真空腔及晶体加工设备部件", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.5, "ret_prev2_year": -27.9, "ret_ytd": -23.8, "ret_pivot": 48.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 49, "hard": 65, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 71.1 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%、固定资产占比 41%、资产负债率 12%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 2.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 71.1 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "坤博精工:PE 比行业中位高 20.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.9个百分点。"]}}