{"F": {"ts_code": "920553.BJ", "name": "凯腾精工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "印刷包装机械", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20210806", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.33, "pe_ttm": 83.5039, "pb": 2.9633, "dv_ttm": 0.6821, "total_mv": 105325.1072, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.6, 40.1, 37.3, 37.6, 34.7, 31.9], "rev_series": [3.5, 3.9, 3.8, 4.2, 4.4, 4.6], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [13.7, 9.3, 5.7, 6.9, 4.5, 6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.8, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 37.3, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.6, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.96, "capex_dep": 0.92, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 33.0, "debt_mv": 10.3, "payout": 62.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.7, "np_cagr3": 6.7, "rev_yoy": 11.4, "np_yoy": -58.5, "np_vol": 33.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["包装版", 34.0], ["烟包版", 7.0], ["其他版", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.1, "ret_prev2_year": 20.8, "ret_ytd": -25.8, "ret_pivot": 96.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 55, "hard": 83, "bondness": 44}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 3 亿,占总资产 52%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 37.3%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.2%,股息率 0.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 94%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 52%)和定价权(毛利率 37.3% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.3%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 0.92 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 83.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "凯腾精工:PE 比行业中位高 41.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 33.6个百分点。"]}}