{"F": {"ts_code": "920533.BJ", "name": "骏创科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220524", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.84, "pe_ttm": 61.66, "pb": 6.7734, "dv_ttm": 0.504, "total_mv": 259422.5388, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.6, 22.6, 25.9, 27.5, 22.7, 23.2], "rev_series": [1.8, 3.5, 5.9, 7.0, 7.6, 7.0], "np_series": [0.2, 0.3, 0.6, 0.9, 0.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [22.0, 25.6, 31.7, 30.4, 15.3, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.3, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 23.2, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 25.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.7, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.77, "capex_dep": 2.47, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 57.3, "debt_mv": 10.6, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.0, "np_cagr3": -15.7, "rev_yoy": 10.9, "np_yoy": 37.3, "np_vol": 57.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 39.2, "fwd_pe2": 30.1, "fwd_g1": 57.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 1.31, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车塑料零部件", 94.0], ["模具", 5.0], ["材料销售", 0.0], ["运营服务费", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 84.9, "ret_prev2_year": 7.3, "ret_ytd": -37.2, "ret_pivot": 202.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 48, "hard": 59, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 61.7 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%、固定资产占比 37%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 2.47 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 61.7 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "骏创科技:PE 比行业中位高 31.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点。"]}}