{"F": {"ts_code": "920522.BJ", "name": "纳科诺尔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电专用设备", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20231116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.12, "pe_ttm": 137.3989, "pb": 3.8947, "dv_ttm": 0.3736, "total_mv": 419590.3273, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.5, 17.5, 25.1, 25.2, 24.2, 19.3], "rev_series": [1.0, 3.9, 7.6, 9.5, 10.5, 9.8], "np_series": [-0.3, 0.3, 1.1, 1.2, 1.6, 0.7], "roe_series": [-15.0, 16.4, 44.6, 20.5, 16.7, 6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.5, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 24.2, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 12.7, "npm_median": 13.1, "roe_median": 16.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.2, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.89, "capex_dep": 3.13, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 63.4, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 20.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 9.0, "np_cagr3": -16.5, "rev_yoy": 36.9, "np_yoy": -68.5, "np_vol": 128.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 21.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.1, "fwd_g1": 527.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 0.49, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["轧机", 26.0], ["智能辊压设备", 26.0], ["其他主营业务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 70.2, "ret_prev2_year": 171.6, "ret_ytd": -56.1, "ret_pivot": 197.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 54, "hard": 7, "bondness": 22}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 137.4 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(7 篇研报)前瞻 PE 21.9 倍,次年 15.1 倍,PEG 0.49。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 12.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 3.13 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 137.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "纳科诺尔:PE 比行业中位高 101.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 23.6个百分点。"]}}