{"F": {"ts_code": "920493.BJ", "name": "并行科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20231101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 118.49, "pe_ttm": 146.3008, "pb": 13.1082, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 717835.5848, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.0, 34.0, 28.3, 25.6, 32.9, 24.2], "rev_series": [null, null, 3.1, 5.0, 6.5, 11.1], "np_series": [null, null, -1.1, -0.8, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [-112.7, -61.0, -65.3, -35.2, 3.5, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.0, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_ttm": -9.3, "fcf_yield": -13.0, "ocf_yield": 7.5, "gm_median": 28.3, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -14.7, "npm_median": -15.7, "roe_median": -35.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.2, "fix_assets": 13.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 13.11, "capex_dep": 5.33, "interest_debt": 17.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.3, "debt_ratio": 75.8, "debt_mv": 23.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 52.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 106.8, "np_yoy": 725.5, "np_vol": 88.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 156.3, "fwd_pe2": 91.0, "fwd_g1": -6.0, "fwd_g2": 72.0, "peg": 2.17, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["算力服务", 32.0], ["云服务", 32.0], ["高性能计算系统集成", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 87.2, "ret_prev2_year": 25.7, "ret_ytd": -10.6, "ret_pivot": 270.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 48, "hard": 56, "bondness": 13}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 146 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 76%,有息负债 17 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.0%(经营现金流/市值 7.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 5.33 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 146.3 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "并行科技:PE 比行业中位高 62.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.6个百分点。"]}}