{"F": {"ts_code": "920471.BJ", "name": "美邦科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230525", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.52, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.0171, "dv_ttm": 0.7864, "total_mv": 104166.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.0, 43.9, 29.8, 17.0, 17.5, 11.5], "rev_series": [3.2, 5.4, 5.6, 4.8, 5.4, 4.2], "np_series": [0.2, 1.0, 0.6, 0.2, -0.0, -0.3], "roe_series": [6.6, 29.9, 15.2, 4.6, -0.6, -5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 8.1, "ocf_yield": 7.1, "gm_median": 17.5, "gm_std": 11.6, "gm_stab": 0.34, "gm_chg_2022": 2.8, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.0, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.02, "capex_dep": -0.27, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 29.0, "debt_mv": 6.4, "payout": 103.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -9.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 17.1, "np_yoy": 388.2, "np_vol": 346.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 39.1, "fwd_pe2": 29.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 1.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["精细化工产品", 100.0], ["其他业务", 0.0], ["解决方案", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.1, "ret_prev2_year": 0.0, "ret_ytd": -0.6, "ret_pivot": 41.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 30, "hard": 82, "bondness": 64}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 51%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 34%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.1%(经营现金流/市值 7.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 34%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 -0.27 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "美邦科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.5个百分点。"]}}