{"F": {"ts_code": "920469.BJ", "name": "富恒新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230918", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.41, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.2408, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 90346.386, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.1, 17.1, 19.3, 23.7, 17.4, 0.3], "rev_series": [3.6, 4.1, 4.7, 3.4, 4.4, 3.8], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.3, 0.1, -1.0], "roe_series": [14.2, 16.0, 17.7, 7.9, 1.6, -28.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.9, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -18.1, "ocf_yield": -16.9, "gm_median": 17.4, "gm_std": 8.0, "gm_stab": 0.54, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.8, "fix_assets": 3.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.24, "capex_dep": 0.71, "interest_debt": 5.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 72.4, "debt_mv": 58.9, "payout": 89.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -6.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.6, "np_yoy": 3.7, "np_vol": 657.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["改性工程塑料类", 37.0], ["改性工程塑料", 37.0], ["苯乙烯类", 19.0], ["聚烯烃类", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.8, "ret_prev2_year": -14.4, "ret_ytd": -47.6, "ret_pivot": 7.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 51, "bondness": 54}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点;资产负债率 72%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 54%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -18.1%(经营现金流/市值 -16.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 54%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.71 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "富恒新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}