{"F": {"ts_code": "920455.BJ", "name": "汇隆活塞", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230621", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.92, "pe_ttm": 37.9563, "pb": 3.6044, "dv_ttm": 2.0231, "total_mv": 122795.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.9, 47.4, 44.2, 38.2, 35.7, 36.4], "rev_series": [1.3, 1.3, 1.4, 1.3, 1.4, 1.6], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [18.6, 18.6, 18.4, 10.4, 10.2, 7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.8, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 38.2, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 24.6, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.2, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.6, "capex_dep": 5.07, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 6.3, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 93.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": -8.1, "rev_yoy": 29.5, "np_yoy": 33.1, "np_vol": 17.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["活塞产品销售", 26.0], ["活塞产品", 26.0], ["其他产品销售", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.2, "ret_prev2_year": 23.6, "ret_ytd": -16.1, "ret_pivot": 92.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 54, "hard": 32, "bondness": 60}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.0 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 38.2%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.2%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.2%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 5.07 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.0 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "汇隆活塞:PE 比行业中位低 4.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点。"]}}