{"F": {"ts_code": "920454.BJ", "name": "同心传动", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20211115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.76, "pe_ttm": 45.4753, "pb": 3.7905, "dv_ttm": 1.3605, "total_mv": 123597.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.7, 32.9, 20.4, 25.2, 30.4, 31.5], "rev_series": [1.4, 1.3, 1.6, 1.5, 1.3, 1.5], "np_series": [0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [19.4, 10.4, 6.6, 7.0, 7.3, 8.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.4, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 30.4, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -14.3, "npm_median": 17.2, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.7, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.79, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 19.8, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 61.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.1, "np_cagr3": 12.2, "rev_yoy": -11.6, "np_yoy": -0.5, "np_vol": 15.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["重型传动轴", 25.0], ["重型", 25.0], ["轻型传动轴", 18.0], ["轻型", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.3, "ret_prev2_year": 33.6, "ret_ytd": -28.4, "ret_pivot": 68.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 49, "hard": 36, "bondness": 53}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 45.5 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 30.4%、固定资产占比 23%、资产负债率 20%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.4%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.4%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.5 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "同心传动:PE 比行业中位高 15.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}