{"F": {"ts_code": "920445.BJ", "name": "龙竹科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "定制家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20200727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.65, "pe_ttm": 65.4623, "pb": 3.8618, "dv_ttm": 1.93, "total_mv": 113338.5941, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.2, 31.8, 25.4, 22.2, 22.6, 24.6], "rev_series": [3.1, 3.5, 3.5, 3.3, 3.2, 3.7], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.4, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [23.8, 18.3, 11.1, 2.7, 4.6, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 24.6, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.7, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.86, "capex_dep": 0.74, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 26.0, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 245.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.8, "np_cagr3": -17.1, "rev_yoy": -8.1, "np_yoy": -48.2, "np_vol": 52.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["普竹系列", 24.0], ["普竹系列：收纳置物", 16.0], ["收纳系列", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.1, "ret_prev2_year": -4.3, "ret_ytd": -34.3, "ret_pivot": 94.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 46, "hard": 94, "bondness": 66}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 65.5 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.6%、固定资产占比 59%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 59%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.6%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.6%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 59%,资本开支/折旧 0.74 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 65.5 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "龙竹科技:PE 比行业中位高 37.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.1个百分点。"]}}