{"F": {"ts_code": "920438.BJ", "name": "戈碧迦", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20240325", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 96.26, "pe_ttm": 288.3456, "pb": 13.9756, "dv_ttm": 0.1046, "total_mv": 1390581.586, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.3, 32.3, 25.0, 29.8, 30.6, 25.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 4.3, 8.1, 5.7, 5.5], "np_series": [null, null, 0.5, 1.0, 0.7, 0.3], "roe_series": [7.9, 10.4, 8.7, 17.0, 8.7, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.4, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 29.8, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -8.3, "npm_median": 12.4, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.9, "fix_assets": 8.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 13.98, "capex_dep": 2.52, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 42.1, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 43.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": -13.6, "rev_yoy": 33.4, "np_yoy": 150.5, "np_vol": 65.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 144.9, "fwd_pe2": 82.6, "fwd_g1": 99.0, "fwd_g2": 75.0, "peg": 1.93, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["光学玻璃", 36.0], ["特种玻璃", 9.0], ["特种功能玻璃", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 153.9, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 139.9, "ret_pivot": 869.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 75, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 288.3 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.8%、固定资产占比 47%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.8%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 2.52 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 288.3 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "戈碧迦:PE 比行业中位高 226.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.5个百分点。"]}}