{"F": {"ts_code": "920422.BJ", "name": "润普食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230301", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.13, "pe_ttm": 30.309, "pb": 2.0551, "dv_ttm": 1.1846, "total_mv": 89632.9852, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.8, 16.9, 19.9, 10.7, 10.1, 12.3], "rev_series": [4.1, 5.3, 6.5, 5.2, 5.2, 4.9], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.7, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2], "roe_series": [17.4, 22.4, 29.2, 2.8, 3.5, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.6, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 12.3, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": 4.1, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.5, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.06, "capex_dep": 1.66, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 20.0, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": 88.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -8.6, "np_cagr3": -37.0, "rev_yoy": 28.7, "np_yoy": 174.3, "np_vol": 57.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["钙盐系列", 15.0], ["钙盐", 15.0], ["钾盐系列", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.2, "ret_prev2_year": 14.9, "ret_ytd": -20.6, "ret_pivot": 109.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 41, "hard": 66, "bondness": 59}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%,稳定度 69%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 1.66 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.3 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "润普食品:PE 比行业中位低 5.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点。"]}}