{"F": {"ts_code": "920419.BJ", "name": "路斯股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "饲料", "sw3": "宠物食品", "ind": "饲料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220311", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.95, "pe_ttm": 22.5252, "pb": 1.9803, "dv_ttm": 1.2552, "total_mv": 123451.148, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.5, 16.5, 15.2, 19.9, 22.9, 20.8], "rev_series": [4.2, 4.6, 5.5, 7.0, 7.8, 8.6], "np_series": [0.4, 0.3, 0.4, 0.7, 0.8, 0.6], "roe_series": [15.3, 10.6, 12.0, 15.2, 15.2, 10.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 19.9, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 12.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.98, "capex_dep": 0.99, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 20.4, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": 13.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.1, "np_cagr3": 11.9, "rev_yoy": 26.2, "np_yoy": -18.6, "np_vol": 32.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 18.8, "fwd_pe2": 16.0, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.11, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["肉干产品", 25.0], ["鸭肉系列产品", 7.0], ["肉粉产品", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.0, "ret_prev2_year": 29.2, "ret_ytd": -24.3, "ret_pivot": 74.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 44, "hard": 60, "bondness": 18}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.9%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.99 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.5 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饲料」19 家中位:PE 44.7 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 9.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 40%。", "路斯股份:PE 比行业中位低 22.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点。"]}}