{"F": {"ts_code": "920418.BJ", "name": "苏轴股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20200727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.02, "pe_ttm": 24.8074, "pb": 3.3564, "dv_ttm": 1.8402, "total_mv": 309055.2192, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.4, 29.6, 32.9, 36.7, 37.3, 36.3], "rev_series": [4.4, 5.3, 5.6, 6.4, 7.2, 7.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.8, 1.2, 1.5, 1.5], "roe_series": [14.4, 11.8, 14.2, 18.7, 19.7, 17.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.4, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 7.1, "gm_median": 36.3, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 19.5, "roe_median": 17.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.3, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.36, "capex_dep": 0.72, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 15.3, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 35.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.8, "np_cagr3": 21.7, "rev_yoy": 3.3, "np_yoy": -31.7, "np_vol": 19.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 18.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.9, "fwd_g1": 31.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["轴承产品", 91.0], ["滚动体", 8.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 59.0, "ret_prev2_year": 24.2, "ret_ytd": -35.7, "ret_pivot": 78.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 57, "hard": 37, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.8 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.3%、固定资产占比 23%、资产负债率 15%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.3%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 0.72 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.8 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "苏轴股份:PE 比行业中位低 5.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}