{"F": {"ts_code": "920415.BJ", "name": "恒拓开源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20200727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.93, "pe_ttm": 49.7769, "pb": 2.4958, "dv_ttm": 0.3525, "total_mv": 139527.9066, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.7, 44.1, 39.8, 39.3, 45.3, 47.0], "rev_series": [2.2, 2.0, 1.8, 1.9, 1.8, 1.7], "np_series": [0.2, 0.2, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [5.8, 4.6, 1.4, 3.9, 3.3, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.9, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 44.1, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.5, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 7.0, "pb_calc": 2.5, "capex_dep": 0.0, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 14.7, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": 26.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.0, "np_cagr3": 52.2, "rev_yoy": 20.1, "np_yoy": 103.3, "np_vol": 87.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["软件开发及技术服务", 24.0], ["系统集成及其服务", 11.0], ["商品集成与服务收入", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.0, "ret_prev2_year": 141.2, "ret_ytd": -29.3, "ret_pivot": 91.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 62, "hard": 2, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 49.8 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 44.1%、固定资产占比 2%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.1%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "恒拓开源:PE 比行业中位低 32.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点。"]}}