{"F": {"ts_code": "920407.BJ", "name": "驰诚股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.63, "pe_ttm": 67.7039, "pb": 4.6679, "dv_ttm": 0.6614, "total_mv": 129092.0696, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.4, 52.8, 46.7, 44.9, 42.3, 38.1], "rev_series": [1.2, 1.5, 1.8, 1.8, 2.3, 2.7], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [20.1, 18.4, 15.2, 9.1, 7.5, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.9, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 44.9, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 11.2, "roe_median": 9.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.2, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 4.67, "capex_dep": 5.17, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 34.1, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 45.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 14.9, "np_cagr3": -11.7, "rev_yoy": 19.4, "np_yoy": 3.0, "np_vol": 12.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能测量仪器仪表", 44.0], ["智能仪器仪表", 44.0], ["报警控制系统及配套", 12.0], ["智能传感器", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 87.1, "ret_prev2_year": 28.3, "ret_ytd": -39.3, "ret_pivot": 139.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 57, "hard": 21, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 67.7 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.9%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.9%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 5.17 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.7 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "驰诚股份:PE 比行业中位高 17.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点。"]}}