{"F": {"ts_code": "920403.BJ", "name": "康农种业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "种子", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20240118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.77, "pe_ttm": 31.5792, "pb": 4.7103, "dv_ttm": 0.7649, "total_mv": 259799.4159, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.5, 37.1, 31.3, 30.7, 35.8, 39.8], "rev_series": [1.1, 1.4, 2.0, 2.9, 3.4, 3.6], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.8, 0.8], "roe_series": [24.7, 20.8, 18.7, 21.4, 21.8, 14.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.8, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 7.9, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 35.8, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -12.1, "npm_median": 21.0, "roe_median": 20.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.1, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.71, "capex_dep": 2.14, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 45.3, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 16.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 22.3, "np_cagr3": 22.5, "rev_yoy": 48.3, "np_yoy": 72.9, "np_vol": 23.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 23.7, "fwd_pe2": 19.9, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 1.25, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["玉米杂交种子", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["玉米废料", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.4, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 15.9, "ret_pivot": 362.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 53, "hard": 21, "bondness": 13}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.6 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 35.8%、固定资产占比 13%、资产负债率 45%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.8%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.9%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 2.14 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.6 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "康农种业:PE 比行业中位低 39.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点。"]}}