{"F": {"ts_code": "920402.BJ", "name": "硅烷科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.86, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.5433, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 373945.2194, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.7, 24.2, 31.9, 39.1, 24.1, -2.5], "rev_series": [5.1, 7.2, 9.5, 11.2, 7.1, 4.7], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 1.9, 3.1, 0.8, -1.1], "roe_series": [11.8, 11.8, 18.7, 20.7, 4.7, -7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": -1.2, "gm_median": 24.2, "gm_std": 14.1, "gm_stab": 0.42, "gm_chg_2022": 9.2, "npm_median": 11.0, "roe_median": 11.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.5, "fix_assets": 12.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.54, "capex_dep": 0.07, "interest_debt": 2.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 18.8, "debt_mv": 5.8, "payout": 15.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -20.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -47.8, "np_yoy": -118.1, "np_vol": 138.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["气体及危化品收入", 50.0], ["气体、危化品及多晶硅收入", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.1, "ret_prev2_year": -26.5, "ret_ytd": -12.3, "ret_pivot": 60.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 100, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 19%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 70%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%,稳定度 42%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%,稳定度 42%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 70%,资本开支/折旧 0.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "硅烷科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 36.0个百分点。"]}}