{"F": {"ts_code": "920395.BJ", "name": "朗鸿科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "楼宇设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220901", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.36, "pe_ttm": 55.9979, "pb": 5.0561, "dv_ttm": 2.6961, "total_mv": 112303.0781, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.6, 57.2, 55.2, 56.2, 56.6, 52.7], "rev_series": [1.2, 1.4, 1.1, 1.2, 1.6, 1.7], "np_series": [0.2, 0.5, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.4], "roe_series": [27.7, 56.2, 26.4, 20.8, 27.2, 18.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.4, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 56.2, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 11.7, "npm_median": 36.4, "roe_median": 26.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 60.3, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.06, "capex_dep": 12.43, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 29.3, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 87.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.4, "np_cagr3": -0.9, "rev_yoy": -33.0, "np_yoy": -65.3, "np_vol": 59.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["防盗展示产品", 33.0], ["防盗器", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.5, "ret_prev2_year": 56.3, "ret_ytd": -34.2, "ret_pivot": 34.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 73, "hard": 96, "bondness": 53}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 2 亿,占总资产 60%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 56.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 11.7 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -2.1%,股息率 2.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 91%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 60%)和定价权(毛利率 56.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 11.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 60%,资本开支/折旧 12.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 56.0 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "朗鸿科技:PE 比行业中位高 13.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 29.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 42.3个百分点。"]}}