{"F": {"ts_code": "920394.BJ", "name": "民士达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "特种纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230425", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.96, "pe_ttm": 53.8404, "pb": 7.8176, "dv_ttm": 0.4448, "total_mv": 657540.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.6, 28.8, 31.4, 34.0, 37.5, 40.2], "rev_series": [1.6, 2.2, 2.8, 3.4, 4.1, 4.5], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 1.3], "roe_series": [10.8, 13.5, 21.5, 17.1, 14.8, 16.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.4, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 34.0, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 5.9, "npm_median": 23.5, "roe_median": 16.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.9, "fix_assets": 4.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 7.82, "capex_dep": 1.62, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 25.4, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 29.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 16.4, "np_cagr3": 26.2, "rev_yoy": -2.8, "np_yoy": -8.3, "np_vol": 17.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 43.2, "fwd_pe2": 32.9, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 1.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["芳纶纸", 87.0], ["芳纶纸复合材料", 6.0], ["复合材料", 6.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 111.9, "ret_prev2_year": 4.7, "ret_ytd": 10.3, "ret_pivot": 298.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 59, "hard": 59, "bondness": 16}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 5 亿,占总资产 37%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.0%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.9 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.7%,股息率 0.4%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 91%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 37%)和定价权(毛利率 34.0% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.0%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 1.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 53.8 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "民士达:PE 比行业中位高 32.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.0个百分点。"]}}