{"F": {"ts_code": "920392.BJ", "name": "佳合科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.19, "pe_ttm": 67.5608, "pb": 3.4563, "dv_ttm": 0.6584, "total_mv": 116459.7553, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.7, 18.1, 17.0, 14.9, 14.4, 15.3], "rev_series": [3.8, 3.9, 3.0, 2.9, 6.5, 7.4], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [32.1, 21.7, 11.0, 6.8, 10.6, 6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 15.3, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 10.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.4, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.46, "capex_dep": 2.41, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 39.8, "debt_mv": 14.5, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 34.9, "np_cagr3": -7.8, "rev_yoy": 10.2, "np_yoy": -32.0, "np_vol": 36.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["彩印", 19.0], ["水印产品", 16.0], ["水印", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 155.4, "ret_prev2_year": 44.4, "ret_ytd": -56.5, "ret_pivot": 90.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 43, "hard": 63, "bondness": 20}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 2.41 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.6 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "佳合科技:PE 比行业中位高 28.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.6个百分点。"]}}