{"F": {"ts_code": "920374.BJ", "name": "云里物里", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "其他通信设备", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.15, "pe_ttm": 106.1908, "pb": 5.3129, "dv_ttm": 0.5307, "total_mv": 138234.1485, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.1, 48.0, 43.3, 43.9, 44.6, 37.9], "rev_series": [1.4, 2.1, 1.6, 1.9, 2.0, 2.5], "np_series": [0.2, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [32.6, 42.9, 14.7, 11.1, 8.9, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.6, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 43.9, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 14.4, "roe_median": 11.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.0, "fix_assets": 0.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.31, "capex_dep": 1.75, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 34.0, "debt_mv": 2.9, "payout": 39.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.4, "np_cagr3": -16.6, "rev_yoy": 15.7, "np_yoy": -26.6, "np_vol": 54.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["蓝牙传感器", 21.0], ["传感器类", 21.0], ["电子标签", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.2, "ret_prev2_year": 62.3, "ret_ytd": -29.8, "ret_pivot": 55.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 61, "hard": 6, "bondness": 26}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 106.2 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.9%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 1.75 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 106.2 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "云里物里:PE 比行业中位高 21.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点。"]}}