{"F": {"ts_code": "920371.BJ", "name": "欧福蛋业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "其他农产品加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.73, "pe_ttm": 30.0323, "pb": 2.6259, "dv_ttm": 1.2937, "total_mv": 158809.3993, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.6, 10.0, 10.7, 14.2, 16.6, 23.8], "rev_series": [6.2, 8.5, 8.9, 9.7, 9.1, 9.1], "np_series": [0.5, 0.2, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.9], "roe_series": [17.1, 6.8, 9.7, 9.4, 8.5, 14.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.3, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 3.6, "ocf_yield": 6.5, "gm_median": 14.2, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.65, "gm_chg_2022": -9.9, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 9.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.0, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.63, "capex_dep": 1.47, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 18.3, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 45.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 0.5, "np_cagr3": 34.2, "rev_yoy": 4.6, "np_yoy": -81.8, "np_vol": 48.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 25.6, "fwd_pe2": 18.9, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["蛋液类", 39.0], ["蛋液", 39.0], ["蛋粉类", 9.0], ["蛋粉", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.9, "ret_prev2_year": 15.0, "ret_ytd": -24.4, "ret_pivot": 95.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 34, "hard": 64, "bondness": 43}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.2%,稳定度 65%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.6%(经营现金流/市值 6.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.2%,稳定度 65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.47 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.0 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "欧福蛋业:PE 比行业中位低 9.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点。"]}}