{"F": {"ts_code": "920368.BJ", "name": "连城数控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏加工设备", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20200727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.41, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2981, "dv_ttm": 0.1709, "total_mv": 549621.01, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.0, 31.8, 26.0, 26.8, 28.7, 29.9], "rev_series": [18.5, 20.4, 37.7, 60.0, 56.7, 21.9], "np_series": [3.8, 3.5, 4.5, 6.8, 3.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [24.1, 15.3, 15.9, 19.4, 8.5, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.1, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 28.7, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -9.0, "npm_median": 9.1, "roe_median": 15.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.2, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.3, "capex_dep": 0.39, "interest_debt": 13.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 47.2, "debt_mv": 24.3, "payout": 10.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -16.6, "np_cagr3": -42.8, "rev_yoy": -24.7, "np_yoy": -81.8, "np_vol": 47.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 31.9, "fwd_pe2": 11.5, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 177.0, "peg": 0.18, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["销售晶体生长设备", 23.0], ["晶体生长及加工设备", 23.0], ["电池片设备", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.8, "ret_prev2_year": -29.7, "ret_ytd": -5.9, "ret_pivot": 31.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 13, "bondness": 28}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 为负(亏损),估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 31.9 倍,次年 11.5 倍,PEG 0.18。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.39 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "连城数控:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.4个百分点。"]}}