{"F": {"ts_code": "920367.BJ", "name": "新赣江", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "原料药", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.39, "pe_ttm": 160.697, "pb": 3.8772, "dv_ttm": 0.1137, "total_mv": 187002.8388, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.2, 44.0, 46.1, 47.2, 43.0, 44.9], "rev_series": [1.8, 2.1, 2.1, 2.2, 1.5, 1.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.2, 0.1], "roe_series": [22.3, 24.1, 18.1, 12.2, 4.7, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.4, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -2.9, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 44.9, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 20.6, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.5, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.88, "capex_dep": 7.65, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 19.9, "debt_mv": 2.9, "payout": 14.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -12.6, "np_cagr3": -32.0, "rev_yoy": 4.9, "np_yoy": -45.1, "np_vol": 24.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["原料药", 15.0], ["化学药品原料药", 15.0], ["制剂药", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.9, "ret_prev2_year": -11.8, "ret_ytd": 31.1, "ret_pivot": 182.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 65, "hard": 71, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 160.7 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 44.9%、固定资产占比 44%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 44%、毛利率 44.9% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.9%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 7.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 160.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "新赣江:PE 比行业中位高 123.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点。"]}}