{"F": {"ts_code": "920357.BJ", "name": "雅葆轩", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.47, "pe_ttm": 24.5928, "pb": 3.7964, "dv_ttm": 0.4972, "total_mv": 161048.888, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.3, 39.3, 33.8, 17.5, 21.3, 19.0], "rev_series": [0.9, 1.9, 2.4, 3.5, 3.8, 6.0], "np_series": [0.2, 0.5, 0.6, 0.4, 0.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [27.3, 51.6, 25.4, 12.0, 13.1, 16.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.0, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -3.8, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 21.3, "gm_std": 8.7, "gm_stab": 0.59, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 12.8, "roe_median": 16.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.5, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.8, "capex_dep": 11.26, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 47.3, "debt_mv": 11.1, "payout": 74.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 36.2, "np_cagr3": 4.0, "rev_yoy": 42.4, "np_yoy": -1.2, "np_vol": 61.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 16.4, "fwd_pe2": 13.5, "fwd_g1": 50.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["汽车电子", 19.0], ["工业控制", 12.0], ["消费电子", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.3, "ret_prev2_year": -27.7, "ret_ytd": -13.0, "ret_pivot": 55.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 37, "hard": 44, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.6 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.3%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.3%,稳定度 59%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 11.26 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.6 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "雅葆轩:PE 比行业中位低 21.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点。"]}}