{"F": {"ts_code": "920351.BJ", "name": "华光源海", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "跨境物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221229", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.36, "pe_ttm": 88.8285, "pb": 2.7979, "dv_ttm": 0.6964, "total_mv": 126418.8904, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.1, 6.3, 6.7, 7.7, 6.2, 8.0], "rev_series": [7.5, 18.0, 21.2, 15.5, 20.8, 19.4], "np_series": [0.2, 0.4, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [8.6, 18.2, 13.9, 7.2, 4.0, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.4, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 6.1, "ocf_yield": 10.0, "gm_median": 6.7, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.5, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 2.8, "capex_dep": 6.62, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 6.9, "debt_ratio": 55.6, "debt_mv": 20.2, "payout": 47.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.8, "np_cagr3": -27.7, "rev_yoy": -10.9, "np_yoy": -21.9, "np_vol": 67.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["货运代理", 36.0], ["代理收入", 36.0], ["公路运输服务", 7.0], ["公路货运", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 126.2, "ret_prev2_year": 13.9, "ret_ytd": -37.6, "ret_pivot": 167.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 40, "hard": 17, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 88.8 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 6.7%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 6.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.1%(经营现金流/市值 10.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.7%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 6.62 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 88.8 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "华光源海:PE 比行业中位高 67.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.1个百分点。"]}}