{"F": {"ts_code": "920344.BJ", "name": "三元基因", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20210108", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.8, "pe_ttm": 189.7581, "pb": 4.0364, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 253364.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [84.0, 81.0, 80.0, 79.7, 82.2, 78.2], "rev_series": [1.8, 2.0, 1.7, 2.4, 2.6, 2.9], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1], "roe_series": [8.9, 7.5, 5.6, 5.3, 3.6, 0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.9, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 80.0, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 12.9, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.4, "fix_assets": 6.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.04, "capex_dep": 0.8, "interest_debt": 4.9, "debt_ebitda": 7.3, "debt_ratio": 46.6, "debt_mv": 19.3, "payout": 28.8, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 18.7, "np_cagr3": -45.1, "rev_yoy": 1.7, "np_yoy": 127.1, "np_vol": 31.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 134.2, "fwd_pe2": 75.6, "fwd_g1": 41.0, "fwd_g2": 77.0, "peg": 1.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["运德素", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.8, "ret_prev2_year": -18.1, "ret_ytd": -11.3, "ret_pivot": 50.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 79, "hard": 93, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 189.8 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 80.0%、固定资产占比 58%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 58%、毛利率 80.0% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 80.0%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 0.80 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 189.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "三元基因:PE 比行业中位高 157.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 36.3个百分点。"]}}