{"F": {"ts_code": "920339.BJ", "name": "恒太照明", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "照明设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "照明设备Ⅲ", "ind": "照明设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221117", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.7, "pe_ttm": 87.9542, "pb": 4.0445, "dv_ttm": 0.932, "total_mv": 235618.066, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.0, 24.4, 28.9, 25.8, 18.7, 18.3], "rev_series": [5.0, 7.7, 6.5, 5.7, 7.2, 5.5], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 1.3, 0.7, 0.7, 0.4], "roe_series": [19.9, 29.0, 30.9, 12.9, 11.5, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.2, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 24.4, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 10.4, "roe_median": 12.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.0, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.04, "capex_dep": 0.82, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 27.9, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -5.2, "np_cagr3": -32.8, "rev_yoy": -12.3, "np_yoy": -76.3, "np_vol": 48.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["灯具销售", 50.0], ["灯具", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.7, "ret_prev2_year": 18.3, "ret_ytd": 9.4, "ret_pivot": 185.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 51, "hard": 29, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 88.0 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.4%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.4%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.82 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 88.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「照明设备Ⅱ」14 家中位:PE 61.2 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 25.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 71%。", "恒太照明:PE 比行业中位高 26.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点。"]}}