{"F": {"ts_code": "920299.BJ", "name": "灿能电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.25, "pe_ttm": 66.2081, "pb": 4.8937, "dv_ttm": 1.0885, "total_mv": 137416.6459, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.6, 60.6, 58.7, 55.5, 52.8, 52.1], "rev_series": [0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 1.3], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [22.0, 17.4, 11.7, 8.7, 8.7, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.3, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 55.5, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 22.5, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.2, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.89, "capex_dep": 0.36, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 13.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 82.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": -0.3, "rev_yoy": 0.8, "np_yoy": -39.8, "np_vol": 3.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["商品销售收入", 33.0], ["商品销售", 33.0], ["技术服务费", 17.0], ["技术服务收入", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 108.2, "ret_prev2_year": 18.0, "ret_ytd": -23.6, "ret_pivot": 164.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 64, "hard": 16, "bondness": 50}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 66.2 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.5%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 0.36 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 66.2 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "灿能电力:PE 比行业中位高 22.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 32.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.7个百分点。"]}}