{"F": {"ts_code": "920278.BJ", "name": "鹿得医疗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗设备", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20200727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.59, "pe_ttm": 88.0428, "pb": 2.9677, "dv_ttm": 1.5175, "total_mv": 114995.5, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.3, 23.2, 24.5, 28.2, 25.3, 25.7], "rev_series": [4.2, 4.0, 3.4, 3.3, 3.4, 3.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [19.1, 10.4, 9.3, 8.1, 7.0, 5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -2.6, "ocf_yield": -0.0, "gm_median": 25.3, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.4, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.97, "capex_dep": 4.07, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 30.8, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 63.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.0, "np_cagr3": -17.7, "rev_yoy": 10.9, "np_yoy": -64.4, "np_vol": 9.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["心脑血管监测类产品", 28.0], ["雾化器", 6.0], ["呼吸治疗类产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.0, "ret_prev2_year": -15.7, "ret_ytd": -26.0, "ret_pivot": 58.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 51, "hard": 49, "bondness": 57}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 88.0 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 4.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 88.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "鹿得医疗:PE 比行业中位高 49.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 30.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点。"]}}