{"F": {"ts_code": "920274.BJ", "name": "宏裕包材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "塑料包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.57, "pe_ttm": 62.199, "pb": 2.8837, "dv_ttm": 0.8439, "total_mv": 142902.6678, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.3, 12.8, 13.8, 11.5, 7.3, 10.6], "rev_series": [5.2, 5.9, 6.8, 6.5, 6.4, 6.2], "np_series": [0.7, 0.4, 0.5, 0.3, 0.0, 0.2], "roe_series": [27.7, 12.3, 14.3, 7.7, 0.7, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 11.5, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -7.5, "npm_median": 5.1, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.1, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.88, "capex_dep": 0.54, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 40.1, "debt_mv": 10.5, "payout": 102.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -3.2, "np_cagr3": -27.1, "rev_yoy": 15.5, "np_yoy": 37.2, "np_vol": 176.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["彩印", 87.0], ["注塑", 5.0], ["新材料", 3.0], ["吹膜产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 152.6, "ret_prev2_year": -15.3, "ret_ytd": -38.4, "ret_pivot": 119.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 38, "hard": 82, "bondness": 66}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 51%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.5%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.5%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 0.54 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 62.2 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "宏裕包材:PE 比行业中位高 23.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.3个百分点。"]}}