{"F": {"ts_code": "920273.BJ", "name": "一致魔芋", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "其他农产品加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.99, "pe_ttm": 42.2431, "pb": 3.2257, "dv_ttm": 2.5013, "total_mv": 205972.7701, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.0, 21.1, 24.6, 21.0, 26.7, 20.0], "rev_series": [3.8, 5.0, 4.5, 4.8, 6.2, 7.4], "np_series": [0.4, 0.6, 0.7, 0.5, 0.9, 0.7], "roe_series": [20.2, 20.1, 18.9, 11.2, 14.6, 10.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 21.1, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 2.6, "npm_median": 11.8, "roe_median": 14.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.5, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.23, "capex_dep": 3.67, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 15.5, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 42.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 18.2, "np_cagr3": 0.7, "rev_yoy": 5.6, "np_yoy": -43.9, "np_vol": 32.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 28.0, "fwd_pe2": 21.9, "fwd_g1": 51.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 1.0, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["魔芋粉", 38.0], ["魔芋食品", 11.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 118.9, "ret_prev2_year": 36.2, "ret_ytd": -37.1, "ret_pivot": 201.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 51, "hard": 41, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 42.2 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 3.67 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.2 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "一致魔芋:PE 比行业中位高 3.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点。"]}}