{"F": {"ts_code": "920271.BJ", "name": "邦德股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220602", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.55, "pe_ttm": 17.4548, "pb": 1.9926, "dv_ttm": 2.0942, "total_mv": 124935.965, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.1, 31.0, 34.3, 40.4, 42.0, 38.6], "rev_series": [1.6, 2.3, 3.4, 3.3, 3.5, 3.8], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.8, 0.9, 0.9, 1.0], "roe_series": [19.3, 15.3, 22.8, 18.1, 16.7, 16.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.4, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -6.4, "ocf_yield": 9.4, "gm_median": 38.6, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 25.6, "roe_median": 16.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 59.9, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.99, "capex_dep": 11.0, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 13.7, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": 26.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.0, "np_cagr3": 8.7, "rev_yoy": -21.3, "np_yoy": -60.5, "np_vol": 45.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 11.6, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 51.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 0.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["冷凝器", 91.0], ["其他业务", 7.0], ["油冷器", 2.0], ["零部件及其他", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.4, "ret_prev2_year": -17.3, "ret_ytd": -40.7, "ret_pivot": 10.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 55, "hard": 96, "bondness": 39}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 4 亿,占总资产 60%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 38.6%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -6.4%,股息率 2.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 71%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 60%)和定价权(毛利率 38.6% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.4%(经营现金流/市值 9.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.6%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 60%,资本开支/折旧 11.00 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.5 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "邦德股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 34.4个百分点。"]}}