{"F": {"ts_code": "920270.BJ", "name": "天铭科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220902", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.43, "pe_ttm": 59.6551, "pb": 3.1732, "dv_ttm": 0.5632, "total_mv": 130037.688, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.6, 36.9, 41.5, 42.5, 41.1, 39.0], "rev_series": [1.7, 1.9, 1.7, 2.3, 2.5, 2.1], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.6, 0.4], "roe_series": [24.8, 24.9, 16.6, 14.9, 15.0, 8.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.2, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -3.2, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 41.1, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 6.9, "npm_median": 24.6, "roe_median": 15.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.2, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.17, "capex_dep": 9.04, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 17.3, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 75.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.8, "np_cagr3": -6.4, "rev_yoy": 5.9, "np_yoy": -63.9, "np_vol": 26.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 27.3, "fwd_pe2": 22.6, "fwd_g1": 118.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["越野主产品", 30.0], ["机电工具制造", 30.0], ["越野改装装备和改装件", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 152.9, "ret_prev2_year": -17.8, "ret_ytd": -51.4, "ret_pivot": 101.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 65, "hard": 85, "bondness": 44}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 3 亿,占总资产 53%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 41.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.9 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -3.2%,股息率 0.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 92%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 53%)和定价权(毛利率 41.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 9.04 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 59.7 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "天铭科技:PE 比行业中位高 29.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.7个百分点。"]}}