{"F": {"ts_code": "920267.BJ", "name": "鑫汇科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220527", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.84, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.3122, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 79961.2726, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.1, 16.4, 15.8, 15.2, 17.1, 14.9], "rev_series": [6.2, 7.4, 6.2, 6.0, 6.2, 5.1], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, -0.1], "roe_series": [28.4, 19.2, 9.7, 8.8, 7.4, -5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.1, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 7.1, "gm_median": 15.8, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.4, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 3.31, "capex_dep": 3.07, "interest_debt": 2.2, "debt_ebitda": 7.9, "debt_ratio": 63.8, "debt_mv": 27.5, "payout": 45.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.5, "np_yoy": -149.1, "np_vol": 63.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智能控制技术及其产品应用", 39.0], ["半导体元件分销", 11.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.4, "ret_prev2_year": 4.6, "ret_ytd": -25.8, "ret_pivot": 45.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 65, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 3.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "鑫汇科:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.6个百分点。"]}}