{"F": {"ts_code": "920261.BJ", "name": "一诺威", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "聚氨酯", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230403", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.9, "pe_ttm": 18.9746, "pb": 2.4835, "dv_ttm": 2.8777, "total_mv": 404674.5197, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.9, 6.8, 7.5, 6.8, 6.3, 6.4], "rev_series": [51.1, 79.8, 63.1, 63.0, 68.6, 75.0], "np_series": [2.0, 2.4, 1.9, 1.3, 1.8, 1.9], "roe_series": [22.8, 22.5, 16.4, 9.6, 11.9, 11.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 85.5, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_yield": -8.8, "ocf_yield": -2.5, "gm_median": 6.8, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 2.6, "roe_median": 11.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.2, "fix_assets": 13.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.48, "capex_dep": 3.04, "interest_debt": 4.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 52.2, "debt_mv": 11.2, "payout": 62.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.9, "np_cagr3": -0.8, "rev_yoy": 29.6, "np_yoy": 23.7, "np_vol": 25.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 15.7, "fwd_pe2": 12.7, "fwd_g1": 21.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["聚酯多元醇、聚醚多元醇(PPG)及聚氨酯组合聚醚", 22.0], ["PPG及聚氨酯硬泡组合聚醚", 22.0], ["聚氨酯弹性体", 18.0], ["原材料销售等其他业务收入", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 54.9, "ret_prev2_year": 3.4, "ret_ytd": -4.8, "ret_pivot": 113.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 43, "hard": 63, "bondness": 57}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.8%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.8%(经营现金流/市值 -2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.8%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 3.04 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.0 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "一诺威:PE 比行业中位低 16.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点。"]}}